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“If red has come up 20 times in a row in roulette,” he said, “it does not mean that ‘black is due.’ ” Heeb conceded that a single hand involves a lot of chance, but it didn’t mean the game was chiefly one of luck. Although pitching involves skill, a pitch is also susceptible to chance: A weak pitcher could throw a good ball, and a strong pitcher a bad one.
To identify the best — and worst — pitchers, we need to look at many throws.
So how do we decide what makes something a game of chance?
Poker Faces The answer turned out to be worth a lot to one man.
Based on Heeb’s data, about 95 percent of people playing online poker ended up out of pocket.But the results were remarkably similar to those Heeb presented: A handful of people appeared to win consistently, and another group seemed to lose a large number of times.This wasn’t evidence that a coin toss involved skill, just that — much like the infinite number of monkeys typing — unlikely events can happen if we look at a large enough group.“How could it be skillful playing if you’re losing money? Heeb admitted, in a particular game, only 10 to 20 percent of players were skillful enough to win consistently.He said the reason so many more people lost than won was partly down to the house fee, with poker operators taking a cut from the pot in each round.