Business cycle dating committee of the national bureau of economic life derek dating game episode

The Bureau waits until the data show whether or not a decline is large enough to qualify as a recession before declaring that a turning point in the economy is a true peak marking the onset of a recession.

Figure 1 shows the recent movements of employment superimposed on the average movement over the past six recessions.

The expansion lasted exactly 10 years, the longest in the NBER's chronology.

A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade.

Employment reached a peak in March 2001 and declined subsequently.

The figure for October is the first to reflect the effects of the attacks of September 11.

A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Commerce Department compiles the first and the Federal Reserve Board the second.Through October, the decline in employment has been similar to the average over the first 7 months of recessions. Figure 4 shows the movements of real personal income less transfers.The cumulative decline is now about 0.7 percent, about two-thirds of the total decline in the average recession. A peak occurred in September 2000 and the index declined over the next 12 months by close to 6 percent, surpassing the average decline in the earlier recessions of 4.6 percent. This measure has continued to rise in recent months and has not yet reached a peak.The broadest monthly indicator is employment in the entire economy.The committee generally also studies another monthly indicator of economy-wide activity, personal income less transfer payments, in real terms, adjusted for price changes.

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